That so-called blue-chip swap rate is currently above 74 pesos per dollar, while the official rate hovers around 60 per dollar. Argentine leader Mauricio Macri claims he needs to carry out such measures to regain investors’ confidence by reducing the country’s spending. If Fernandez were to obtain such a result in October's presidential election, he would become president, as Argentina's electoral law dictates that 45% is enough for an outright victory, avoiding a run-off. Party primaries are closely watched in Argentina because they are held simultaneously and voting is obligatory, so they are seen as referendum on candidates' popularity - effectively an early poll involving the entire electorate , since the country’s main political parties have already chosen their nominees. Kirchner’s vice-president, Amado Boudou, was sentenced in August 2018 to six years in prison in a different corruption case, while the “Notebook-gate” scandal that began on 01 August 2018 had already involved 26 arrests, 17 plea bargains, 70 raids and 52 subpoenas. “So we expect a return to subsidized loans for small and medium enterprises, lower interest rates, and maintaining certain subsidies and social transfers.”. Problem: Argentina’s chaotic exchange rate market. Fernandez will maintain the controls to prevent people from dollarizing their savings or taking money out of the country. Le solde des administrations publiques en Argentine représentait -2,3% du PIB en 2019 et devrait atteindre -0,7% en 2020 et -1,2% en 2021. Macri's popularity had fallen in recent months before elections in October, when he will seek a second term. Former Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernández of Frente de Todos defeated incumbent president Mauricio Macri of Juntos por el Cambio, exceeding the threshold to win the presidency in a single round. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Policy Response: Fernandez has pointed toward a debt re-profiling plan that mirrors Uruguay’s restructuring in 2003, which pushed out maturities with a minimal loss in value to creditors. In May, a survey of more than 1,000 people by Argentine pollsters D'Alessio Irol/Berensztein revealed that 75 percent of respondents felt seeking assistance from the Washington, DC-based IMF was problematic. Argentines had their first chance on 11 August 2019 to head to the ballot boxes in a high-stakes presidential primary race in which they must choose between staying the course of painful austerity measures or a return to interventionist economics. Il en est aujourd'hui à plus de 95 % de dévaluation vis-à-vis du billet vert. Argentina’s budget deficit is expected to be 0.5% of GDP by the end of 2019, narrower than the 2.3% deficit in 2018, according to the Economy Ministry. Et Mauricio Macri l'a payé cher. Premier choc en 2018 : un changement de politique monétaire aux États-Unis bouscule les économies émergentes mais l'Argentine, plus vulnérable, plonge plus vite que d'autres. document.getElementsByTagName("head")[0].appendChild(script); d.setTime(d.getTime() + 60 * 60 * 24 * 2 * 1000); ... qui embrasse tout le spectre politique, de la droite jusqu'à la gauche, et qui peine à se mettre d'accord sur un candidat unique. Argentine : la crise politique panique la Bourse et le peso. While, the Front of All candidate for governor of Buenos Aires' province, one of the most important of the country and key for general elections, also won with over 10 points over Macri’s candidate Maria Eugenia Vidal. Voici un vaste tableau de la situation en Argentine à l’issue des élections du 27 octobre 2019. Problem: Argentina faces three big dollar-denominated debt payments in the next few months -- $1 billion in December, $900 million in January, and $450 million to the IMF in February. La crise présidentielle [2] au Venezuela est une crise politique autour de la légitimité de la présidence du pays depuis le 10 janvier 2019. In May 2018, a survey of more than 1,000 people by Argentine pollsters D'Alessio Irol/Berensztein revealed that 75 percent of respondents felt seeking assistance from the Washington, DC-based IMF was problematic. Coronavirus : en Argentine, coup de massue pour une économie à l’agonie La quarantaine obligatoire a été décrétée dans le pays, qui traverse une grave crise économique et sociale depuis 2018 Argentina - 2019 Election. Narrowing Gap Have a confidential tip for our reporters? Le président Maurio Macri a fait le pari de l'amélioration de la situation économique en signant un accord avec le FMI. November 10, 2020. Argentina Economic Outlook. The main ticket opposing Argentine President Mauricio Macri in elections scheduled for October struck a formal alliance on 12 June 2019 with Sergio Massa, a key centrist political figure. Having signed a US$50 billion standby financing deal with the IMF in June 2018, the slide in the peso prompted Macri’s administration to pledge deeper spending cuts to secure an early release of funds. }, Page last modified: The imposition of currency controls slowed the flight of dollars out of the country, but not stopped it. var script = document.createElement("script"); The economic situation remained dire in Q3, after GDP collapsed in Q2. Policy Response: More of the same. 20:13 30.10.2019 (mis à jour 10:38 18 ... éternelle force politique en Argentine? Mauricio Macri won election to the presidency in 2015 in multiparty elections the media and various nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) described as generally free and fair. Huitième pays du monde par sa superficie (2,8 M km², soit plus de 5 fois la France), l’Argentine représente la 4 e plus grande population d’Amérique Latine (40 M d’habitants selon le recensement de 2010, après 37 M recensés en 2001), derrière le Brésil, le Mexique et la Colombie. Creditors are forming negotiation committees, but with bonds trading around 40 cents on the dollar, they’re signaling their expectations are low. En 2019, les importations ont diminué en raison de la dépréciation de la monnaie et de la faiblesse de la demande intérieure. Argentina has trimmed its budget deficit throughout Macri's administration. document.cookie = "__adblocker=; expires=Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 GMT; path=/"; University teachers were on strike for three weeks demanding higher wages until over half of the universities reached an agreement with the government. Explore what’s moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via Apple Podcast, Spotify or Pocket Cast. Problem: As the recession entered its second year, Argentina’s poverty rate climbed to 35.4% in the first half of 2019 from 27.3% a year earlier. They are promises that are likely to push into ever-increasing state intervention and controls that many blame for the crisis in the first place. General elections were held in Argentina on 27 October 2019, to elect the president of Argentina, members of the national congress and the governors of most provinces. But to do that, he would need to renegotiate contracts with utility providers, removing the automatic link to the exchange rate, Torres said. En 2000, le peso était à parité avec le dollar. } Argentina's outstanding loans, T-bills and government bonds denominated in foreign currency*. Argentina’s budget deficit is expected to be 0.5% of GDP by the end of 2019, narrower than the 2.3% deficit in 2018, according to the Economy Ministry. Caractéristique négative : le marché du peso est très peu liquide, et tout ordre de vente, même de taille modeste, suffit à faire plonger la devise argentine. Argentina's next presidential and national elections are in October 2019, making Argentine president Mauricio Macri's commitment to austerity potentially very costly. In the August primaries, Fernandez snapped up 49.5 percent of the vote, compared to just 33 percent for Macri. The Moyanos described these talks “as a first step after many years of distance from Cristina to explore the possibility of unifying Peronism to come back to power.”. Fernandez can also avoid a run-off if he wins with 40% with a lead of at least 10 percentage points over his closest challengers. var setNptTechAdblockerCookie = function(adblocker) { 31-10-2019 16:47:08 ZULU. script.setAttribute("src", "//www.npttech.com/advertising.js"); Le contexte politique actuel En octobre 2019, Alberto Fernández a été élu président de l'Argentine (avec 48,24% des voix), tandis que Mauricio Macri - qui a exercé ses fonctions entre 2015 et 2019 et s'est porté candidat à la réélection - est arrivé deuxième avec 40,28% des voix. Consultez les derniers articles du Point sur le pays : Argentine et restez informés en suivant l'actualité sur le site Le Point.fr. Infection pulmonaire – Coronavirus Covid-19 (24/12/2020) Le 11 mars, l’OMS a qualifié de « pandémie » l’épidémie de coronavirus Covid-19 (voir liste des pays concernés et chiffres sur le site du Centre européen de prévention et de contrôle des maladies).. A la date du 24 décembre, la situation sanitaire en Argentine est contrastée. Argentine savers withdraw their dollars from banks amid financial turbulence. Argentina Central Bank Seen Seeking Weak Peso Under Fernandez. Alberto Fernandez, allié à l’ex-presidente Cristina Kirchner, a été élu dimanche 27 octobre à la tête de l’Argentine, mettant fin à une parenthèse libérale de 4 ans. #ga-ad {display: none;} Policy Response: Fernandez is likely to re-install utility subsidies to ease the cost of living for the poor. The conservative incumbent won backers with plans to reform Argentina's notoriously closed economy with trade deals and a successful push to lure foreign investment into energy projects and infrastructure. La pandémie du nouveau coronavirus a fait au moins 1.775.272 morts dans le monde depuis que le bureau de l'OMS en Chine a fait état de l'apparition de la maladie fin décembre 2019… Elle oppose Nicolás Maduro, président élu en 2013 et réélu en 2018 lors d'élections contestées et auxquelles l'opposition traditionnelle n'a pas participé, et Juan Guaidó président de l'Assemblée nationale [3] depuis le 5 janvier 2019. Argentine: élections 2019 Les élections présidentielles et législatives de 2019 doivent ou non confirmer le virage conservateur de 2015. Kirchner was a senator in 2018 and voted favor of legalising abortion. À l'issue d'un processus électoral chaotique marqué par plusieurs reports du scrutin présidentiel, Félix Tshisekedi est devenu en janvier 2019 le nouveau chef de l'Etat congolais, succédant à Joseph Kabila qui dirigeait la RDC (République démocratique du Congo) depuis 18 ans. While gross reserves total $44 billion, analysts estimate net reserves are between $10 billion and $12.5 billion. The peso, high inflation and high-interest rates will be enough of an example unless the peso turns the corner. AstraZeneca-Oxford Covid Vaccine Gains First Clearance With U.K. Nod, U.S. Vaccinations at 200,000 a Day Run Far Short of ‘Warp Speed’, Covid Variant in U.S.; Biden to Speed Vaccinations: Virus Update, U.S. Stocks Drop After Hope Fades for Expanded Aid: Markets Wrap, U.S. Stocks Set for a Rebound, Dollar Weakens: Markets Wrap. “There will have to be some fiscal space to kick-start the economy,” said Hector Torres, Geneva-based senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation. L’élection présidentielle argentine de 2019 (Elecciones presidenciales de Argentina de 2019) se tient le 27 octobre 2019 afin d'élire le président et le vice-président de l'Argentine pour un mandat de quatre ans. Argentina is a federal constitutional republic. This case is based on eight diaries written by a chauffeur of a former top official under Kirchner’s Ministry of Federal Planning, including details on numerous pick-ups and deliveries of bags with millions of dollars in alleged kickbacks, even to the residences of the Kirchners. With almost 90 percent of votes counted, Argentinian opposition progressive ticket Alberto Fernandez and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner won over right-wing incumbent President Mauricio Macri with 47,75 over 40,76 percent respectively in the general elections. For legislative positions elections are every two years, and for the executive power and governors every 4. Sur le plan régional, l’Argentine est confrontée depuis plusieurs années à un panorama instable, marqué par la crise politique au Venezuela (près de 150 000 Vénézuéliens se sont installés en Argentine), ainsi que la crise politique en Bolivie et les crises sociales qui se sont développées en 2019 … Le 9 avril 2019, le FMI a estimé que « les risques à la baisse pour l’économie restent considérables »: elle se contractera de 1,2 % en 2019 et la récession se prolongera jusqu’en 2020. It would not take a hard-core Peronist to sell a narrative that Argentina’s new pro-business elites in government failed both the working and middle classes. The enormous corruption network revealed pushed the Peronist factions led by Senator Miguel Angel Pichetto and former presidential candidate Sergio Massa further away from Kirchnerism. Policy Response: The lack of dollars means Fernandez will probably have to renegotiate a $56 billion loan accord with the IMF, which he partly blames for the economic crisis. Like the social programs of Argentina’s past, Fernandez is expected to fix prices for gas and electric, and may go further by granting salary hikes and social security payment increases, according to a person familiar with the plan. Publié le 12/01/2019 à 12h45. He has yet to detail his economic plan and won’t announce his cabinet until Friday, five weeks after being elected. He’s also expected to expand price freezes on basic foodstuffs implemented by the current President Mauricio Macri. (function(src){var a=document.createElement("script");a.type="text/javascript";a.async=true;a.src=src;var b=document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0];b.parentNode.insertBefore(a,b)})("//experience.tinypass.com/xbuilder/experience/load?aid=bYdYZQml5V"); Argentina is a federal constitutional republic. Problem: Argentines have yanked more than $13.6 billion from bank accounts since August, or 42% of the total, according to central bank data. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) pledged its "full support" for Argentina on 31 august 2018 as the country sought to overcome an ongoing economic crisis that has prompted a world-record interest rate hike and seen the value of the peso plunge to a record low against the dollar. Voters also chose presidential candidates, along with deputies, senators, governors and local leaders. He may even tighten the controls further to mirror those in place from 2011 to 2015, which restricted companies from sending wire transfers abroad, placing impediments on imports, Costa said. The context of the talks with the IMF was summarized by Bloomberg on 02 September 2018: “Macri is in a pinch to please investors by cutting spending, while ensuring that the belt-tightening austerity doesn’t cause social upheaval ahead of next year’s election.”. For the moment, investors and Argentines have been left on tenterhooks. Similarly, consumer confidence remained downbeat in Q3, pointing to constrained household spending. Centrist former Finance Minister Roberto Lavagna came in at a distant third with just 8.3 %. Consultez l’ensemble des articles, reportages, directs, photos et vidéos de la rubrique Argentine publiés le lundi 28 décembre 2020. Consumer prices surged by the most in a year ahead of the elections, rising 5.9% in September from the month before. L’Argentine n’est pas un pays mais un pendule, estime-t-il. The country held midterm elections in October 2017 for one-third of the Senate and one-half of the Chamber of Deputies. Read More: Slow Tease of Argentina’s New Cabinet Sets Investors on Edge. As Argentina went to the polls, the economy topped the agenda of voter concerns in a country that has slid into a recession. Des élections marquées par une confirmation de la bipolarisation politique et sociale du pays, dans un contexte de crise économique à laquelle les deux principaux candidats voyaient des … Don’t expect him to ask Argentines to tone down their expectations though. They have dressed as Eva Péron, Argentina’s iconic former first lady, to commemorate the suffragette movement anniversary and put a spotlight on a feminist agenda. The second quarter looks even more complicated. “Fernandez has hinted in the past that his plans for boosting consumption could involve raising public salaries and benefits, which is something that could have a significant fiscal impact,” said Adriana Dupita, Latin America economist with Bloomberg Economics. L’économie argentine est d'ailleurs de nouveau entrée en récession en 2019. L'Argentine, autrefois riche a été détruite par le péronisme. People line up outside of a currency exchange house in Buenos Aires on Oct. 25. The cuts were initiated as part of a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $56 billion (€50 billion) package of emergency loans. L'Argentine, ce pays de 44 millions d'habitants, cinq fois la taille de la France, est de nouveau en crise. The move helped presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez, a former cabinet chief, and vice presidential candidate Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, widen their appeal to centrist voters. The economy had taken center stage with the country in the grip of recession for most of the past year, the outlook for growth darkening, annual inflation over 50 percent, job numbers down and poverty up sharply. The country's main political parties had already chosen their nominees, so the primary election, known locally as the PASO, served as the first concrete measure of voter sentiment. A relative moderate, Massa took third in Argentina's last presidential contest in 2015. var d = new Date(); Le solde des administrations publiques en Argentine représentait -2,3% du PIB en 2019 et devrait atteindre -0,7% en 2020 et -1,2% en 2021. Policy Response: To keep dollars in the economy, Fernandez is expected to raise taxes on agricultural exports, a policy that was championed by his running mate, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, during her term in the presidency. En 2019, le produit intérieur brut argentin chute de 7,7% par rapport à l'année précédente, à 478 milliards de dollars, selon les estimations du FMI. Conservative, pro-business President Mauricio Macri, who’s running for a second term, could not risk alienating his traditional support base by bringing up the issue. Le scrutin se tient en même temps que les élections législatives et sénatoriales. While the pace of the decline in economic activity softened in July-August from Q2, it remained considerable. While currency controls imposed at the start of September have slowed the decline in the country’s peso, they have also led to a resurgence in an alternative exchange rate based on the difference between local shares in pesos and the same foreign-traded shares in dollars.